Festive Atmosphere Prevails, Spot Market Trading Remains Sluggish [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary]

Published: Jan 2, 2025 08:51

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[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Festive Atmosphere Prevails, Spot Market Trading Remains Muted] Macro side, the US dollar index consolidates at a high level, and traders continue to trade on the possibility of fewer US Fed interest rate cuts in 2025. Fundamentals side, pre-holiday trading volume shrinks, lead ingot supply remains locally tight, and smelters maintain premiums and are reluctant to sell. After New Year's Day, with year-end account settlement and inventory checks completed, dealers' pre-Chinese New Year purchasing plans are gradually fulfilled.

Futures Market:

Overnight, both LME lead and SHFE lead were closed for the New Year's Day holiday.

》Click to view SMM lead spot historical prices

Spot Fundamentals :

In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead quoted a premium of 100-150 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2502 contract; in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, JCC lead quoted a premium of 30-100 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2502 contract. Before the New Year's Day, SHFE lead continued to fluctuate downward, while the market was dominated by a strong holiday atmosphere, leading to fewer quotes. Meanwhile, smelters offered limited cargoes self-picked up from production sites. Secondary lead smelters gradually resumed production, but declining profits resulted in fewer firm quotes from smelters. Downstream enterprises remained on the sidelines, and the spot order market saw muted trading activity.

On December 31, LME lead inventory decreased by 2,150 mt to 243,725 mt, with the decline mainly from Singapore warehouses.

》Click to view the SMM metal industry chain database

Lead Price Forecast Today:

Macro side, the US dollar index consolidated at a high level as traders continued to price in the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts by the US Fed in 2025. Fundamentals side, pre-holiday trading volumes were thin, and lead ingot supply remained locally tight, with smelters maintaining premiums and being reluctant to sell. After the New Year's Day holiday, as year-end account settlements and inventory checks conclude, dealers are expected to gradually fulfill their pre-Chinese New Year procurement plans, and downstream just-in-time procurement demand is likely to be released. Lead prices may see a potential bottoming-out and rebound.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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